Calculation method
Expected P&L = p × Average win − (1 − p) × Average loss − Cost p at break-even = (Average loss + Cost) / (Average win + Average loss)
Assumptions & scope
The model assumes the input average win, average loss and average per-trade cost remain applicable. It ignores the order of outcomes, position scaling and variation in costs. A result above 100% means break-even is impossible under these inputs, even if every trade wins.
Worked example
Illustrative inputs: average win 200, average loss 100 and cost 10 give (100 + 10) / (200 + 100) = 36.67%. This is an arithmetic threshold, not an estimate of achievable win rate.